Statement on Syria

Considering the very recent events in Syria, I thought I would share some brief thoughts for consideration with our friends and followers.

Setting the Stage

As most of you are probably aware by now, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen. This remarkable reality has the potential to greatly affect our country as well as Israel and the entire Middle East, so we need to be alert to events as they unfold. To begin this exercise allow me to summarize the big picture as it was before this past weekend.

Syria has been a proxy for Iran for a long time. One of the primary reasons for this is that Assad and his government are Shiite Muslims and are therefore naturally aligned with Iran, which is essentially the center of Shia Islam on the planet. The terror group Hezbollah is also a Shiite organization. While Shiites and Sunnis will work together for a common goal [like Iran’s use of Hamas (Sunni) to harm Israel and Israelis], they are sworn enemies and have been at odds since the birth of Islam in the 7^th century. The tension based in this intra-Islam conflict is largely to blame for the horrible treatment that Shiites and Sunnis have inflicted on each other for many centuries. This has seen expression in recent years by the workings within Syria and Iraq. Syria is predominantly Sunni but has been led by the oppressive Assad government, which is Shiite. Until the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq had the opposite reality; its population is majority Shiite but was then governed by Sunnis. ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) grew out of this tinder box. The election in Iraq that followed Saddam’s ouster resulted in a Shiite government. When that happened a solid Shiite controlled block was created spanning Iran though Syria and right up to the border of Israel. All this including the reality that Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon (as an extension of Syria) resulted in Lebanon essentially being a controlled extension of Syria and therefore Iran.

To complicate things even more, Russia decided long ago to side with the Shiites and now controls military bases in Syria that give it a foothold in the Middle East. In fact, Russia’s commitment to their presence through Syria motivated Russia just a few years ago to step in and put down the Sunni rebellion in Syria when the Assad regime was in danger of folding in the civil war in Syria.

Recent Events

In its current war with Hamas, Israel has battled on many fronts and recently took significant steps to go on the offense. In so doing, they have successfully eliminated the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah and even hurt Iran’s military capability. As a result, Lebanon is beginning to flex its muscles a bit and some are wondering if this may be the beginning of that county finally taking control of its own destiny. In addition, Russia finds itself embroiled in its war with Ukraine, so it is unable to assist Assad against the rebels in Syria as it has in the past. Circumstances were therefore ripe for the Syrian rebels to act, and they did so rather swiftly and successfully. Consequently, after 50 years of control, the Assad family no longer governs Syria. According to news reports Assad and his family found asylum in Russia. As this was happening, Israel moved to take control of strategic positions in the Golan to better defend itself should the Syrians advance further toward Israel on the northern border.

We cannot know what the ultimate result of all these actions will be, but there are certain things we can look for as we observe. It is too early to tell who will lead Syria into the future, but the answer to that question will have far reaching affects. Currently it appears that several jihadi groups are in contention, and they range in levels of radicalism, though for now, at least, the ones being heard are attempting to take moderate tones. Great caution needs to be exercised here because some of these groups are very much like al-Qaeda or ISIS, etc., and power ultimately vested in them would be destabilizing for the region. Having said that, perhaps there might be a possibility for a moderate government to take hold. If so, does that mean Syria might be among the Sunni countries that will join the Abraham Accords in Trump’s second term? I am not predicting that will happen, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Some of the Syrian rebel groups have the backing of Turkey. This raises a host of complications because Turkey is a member of NATO. Member states of NATO are bound to defend other member nations in military conflicts. Should Turkey be pulled more meaningfully into the upheaval in Syria, it would be fascinating to see how that would impact other NATO nations, particularly the United States. This aspect is further complicated by the reality that Turkey has been trying to take over parts of Syria for years and therefore has its own, albeit illegal, interests to protect. Much could be said about other countries in the region as well, especially Iran. What will it do to regain its level of power and will it be able to work through the new government that will form in Syria?

Should a radical jihadi group ultimately take control in Syria, there would be new pressures on Israel that could replace any relief that they might have from vanquishing Hamas even if they are successful in eliminating that group. What will happen to the Russian controlled military bases there and Russia’s involvement in the region? Russia will certainly want to come to some agreement with that group and that will raise a host of new issues, especially if Russia becomes stronger after the end of their war with Ukraine.

The United States has recently launched rockets into Syria, and Americans are believed to be held there. How will these matters be resolved?

Israel, for now at least, has been attacking military targets and assets in Syria lest they fall into the wrong hands. Will that continue? Will there be a meaningful response? If so, by whom? The list of questions can go on and on.

We truly live in amazing times. Hopefully, our country will stay on the sidelines and wait for the rebellion to settle out and reveal the actual government that will lead Syria from this point. The stakes are high for the US as well as Israel at a time that a new administration takes power in our country. Let’s follow these events closely but with wisdom and let’s pray for peace and lost souls before it is too late. Many lives will be lost as the region goes through significant changes before our eyes.

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Dr. Craig Hartman is the founder and director of Shalom Ministries Inc., based in Brooklyn, New York. A frequent conference speaker and teacher, Dr. Hartman is part of the leadership at Bethel Baptist Fellowship of Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, and also serves on the Executive Board of FBFI.

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Photo by ali wannous.