What Happened in Canada

Our election up here is over and the guys I voted for lost (as usual… I am used to backing those who rarely win!). Interestingly to me, a lot of Americans are talking about this one — you all usually don’t notice our politics. Of course, the reason it is getting attention in the USA is the rule the American president, Donald Trump, played in our election.

With all the punditry, I am loath to add my comments, but I’m getting questions from many of my friends and, well, one ot the leading evangelical bloggers, fellow-Canadian Tim Challies opined on it on Tuesday, so perhaps it is worth saying something. I think Challies gets most of the story right, but he is wrong in his analysis (in my opinion).

What exactly happened to bring the Liberal party from a 16% approval rating a few months ago to 43.7% of the total vote on election day?

• The government of Justin Trudeau became increasingly unpopular over the last couple of years. Trudeau’s policies, especially economically, began to have an impact on daily life so voters were very unhappy. His ‘woke’ stands probably didn’t hurt him as much as they could have but the irrationality of many ‘woke’ positions also began to erode support.
• After the United States elected Donald Trump as president, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada on November 25, 2024 (for the tariff timeline, see here).
• Justin Trudeau immediately sought a meeting with the President-elect, dining with him at Mar-a-Lago on November 29, 2024. It was at this meeting, Trump “joked” about Governor Trudeau from the Great State of Canada. (The news about this jibe came out a few days after the meeting. Some still claim Trump was joking, but he kept it up over many months. Canadians didn’t take it as a joke.)
• On December 16, 2024, the Canadian Finance minister resigned from Cabinet on the day she was supposed to deliver the “fall economic update,” a sort of mini-budget. This put the government in turmoil and Trudeau came under heavy pressure from his own party to resign.
• On Jan 6, 2025, Justin Trudeau “prorogued” parliament, which meant parliament would not meet and immediately vote him out of office, thus precipitating an election. He promised to resign his position as Prime Minister when the Liberal party chose a successor. The Liberals went into a “hurry-up” offence and selected Mark Carney as leader and Prime Minister on March 14, 2025. He immediately called an election, without facing parliament and this last Monday night won a strong minority government.

What happened on election day?

The House of Commons is the equivalent of the US House of Representatives, with Canadian “ridings” the equivalent of American “districts.” Here is how it stands as of the latest counts:

• Liberals – 169 seats – 43.7% of the vote
• Conservative – 144 seats – 41.3% of the vote
• Bloc Quebecois – 22 seats (separatists in Quebec) – 6.3% of the vote
• New Democratic Party – 7 seats (socialists) – 6.3% of the vote
• Green – 1 seat – 1.2% of the vote

To form a majority government, a party would need 173 seats, so the Liberals are three short. The NDB and the lone Green will vote with the Liberals 95% of the time, so the Liberals shouldn’t have much worry about going down to a non-confidence motion.

Tim Challies’ called this result a “collapse” for the Conservatives and say the NDP “nearly ceased to exist.” I don’t see it that way.

The Conservatives were polling at 46% in January 2025, when Trudeau resigned. They dropped down to 41.3% on election day, but close enough to their earlier polling that one could say they held on to their earlier support. The more recent polls had me worried the Liberals would get a substantial majority, as, with Trudeau gone, Carney seemed to answer the disgruntled Liberals who were fleeing Trudeau’s regime. In addition, pre-election, the polls were showing the NDP collapse, and they were collapsing towards the Liberals.

With the Liberals in minority status, and the Conservatives holding a strong position, despite the long standing “left of center” nature of the Canadian electorate, I am not as disappointed as I expected to be. The Liberal’s should have won a majority, but they didn’t. The Liberals had the benefit of over half the NDP vote. Where did all the old Liberals (“the natural governing party”) go? I think some of them shifted Conservative — enough that it held the Liberals to a minority government which might temper their enthusiasm for some of Carney’s far left ideas (one can hope anyway).

What about the Trump Factor?

Some are pointing to mistakes by the Conservative campaign and by its leader, Pierre Poilievre. No doubt mistakes were made; they always are. Nonetheless, the single biggest factor in the Liberal revival was reaction to Donald Trump and his aggressive stance toward Canada. Canadians, like most people, have a sense of national pride. When Trump made his remarks and started imposing tariffs, he antagonized almost all Canadians, including the Conservatives. We might fight among ourselves about how our country should be run, but we want outsiders to keep out of it.

The fear of Trump led many on the left, especially the NDP supporters, to switch to the Liberals, because Poilievre is seen by them as “too much like Trump” and not prepared to “stand up to Trump.” It really doesn’t matter if Trump was “joking,” or if the tariff idea really comes into play in the future, the threats stirred people up and led to the massive move out of third parties to the Liberals. (Massive, yes, but not massive enough to give the Liberals a majority.) We had a very high voter turnout in this election, starting from the first advance polls to election day.

If Trump hadn’t antagonized Canadians, we would have had an election anyway. It would have been a more normal election. Given that the Conservatives basically held on to their support in the election we had, I think the left would have retained its traditional split, thus giving the Conservatives the win. That would be the case if it was a “normal” election — and Americans wouldn’t be talking about it this week either!

What should Christians think about the Canadian election?

In this area, I echo Challies’ concluding points. He speaks to real concerns about where Carney will lead our nation. For me, the area of biggest concern is the antagonism towards free speech and freedom of religion. Pray for Canadian Christians:

• That we would continue to speak the truth of the gospel no matter how politically incorrect many Canadians might deem it to be, especially those in authority.
• That we would not falter if (as some have threatened) the government tries to punish incorrect speech by removing tax exemption from religious organizations (and even from churches) if they don’t toe the line.
• That we would remember that our hope is in God, not in man. Pierre Poilievre, though he would likely preserve our freedoms, is no messiah. There is only One of those, and there are no vacancies.
• That we would be people of prayer.
• That we would redouble our efforts at making disciples. After all, that is our mandate from Someone higher than Prime Ministers, Presidents, and Kings.

I may not be much of a political pundit, but I hope this helps especially American readers to understand what is going on up here in the True North. And regardless of which side of the 49^th parallel we live on, may we all be committed to the Lord and His agenda, the Great Commission.

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Don Johnson is the pastor of Grace Baptist Church of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.